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By Amanda Newman of the Newberg Graphic
The local housing market may be slow, but it's far better than the national market - and some area real estate professionals agree that things could start picking up as early as next year.
"We still have activity, but it's certainly not what we've had in the past few years," said Kris Horn, principal broker for Newberg's Coldwell Banker.
"Things are not selling as quickly as they were a year ago and prices have retreated from the highs, but homes that are priced competitively are selling," said Bill Hester, principal broker for the Dundee branch of Re/Max Equity Group.
Dan Foster, head of the Newberg and Sherwood offices of Prudential Northwest Properties, offered an explanation: "It's normalized. We went through three or four years after 9/11 where interest rates just plummeted ... The market corrected itself."
And compared to the national market, the area may be doing quite well.
"We are nowhere as bad as the national market," Hester said. Horn and Foster agreed.
"I believe (the local market) is better than most other markets because we have not appreciated so drastically and so the correction will not have to be as great," said Kelly Hagglund, head of the Kelly Group, Keller Williams Realty's presence in Newberg. "Oregon as a state is still appreciating and so is our area."
All agreed that local real estate leans, at least, toward a buyer's market. The houses "moving" the quickest are in the lower price ranges.
"As of (Monday) night, we have 13.77 months of inventory in Yamhill County - that means if no other property were listed after (Monday) night at the rate at which they are going pending, it would take 13.77 months to sell what inventory we have currently," Hagglund said, explaining that zero to three months of inventory constitutes a seller's market, three to six months is balanced, and above six is considered a buyer's market.
Horn, on the other hand, said she does not consider the current state of affairs to be a "classic buyer's market." Foster said the current listing average for a Newberg residence is 84 days on the market.
The key for selling? Pricing.
"It really all comes down to pricing and sellers getting into the mentality - there are so many homes on the market, (sellers have) got to demonstrate value to the buyer," Foster said. "If you're 1 percent over the market value, you're probably going to sit on the market for probably twice as long."
Hester said sellers need to price their homes "competitively" and take advantage of the market: "Even though they may get less for their home right now, they can also buy another home for less at good interest rates."
"What I'm finding is that the lower-priced suburban houses are what we're seeing selling (the most)," Horn said. "(But) there's still a market in town right now."
She credited confusion for some of the selling difficulties: "I think the market correction has been a challenge - anytime you go from a bustling market (to a slower market), people get confused."
Foster said that public perception may also be affecting the market. "One thing that's hurting our market is the national media," he said, explaining that media coverage of housing markets tanking in other parts of the country can negatively affect the local market. "The national news is something that we all look at and we apply the national news, but (what) you have to understand about real estate (is), it's all local."
The group offered tips for individuals interested in buying or selling a home. A strong buyer is one who has a good credit score, has a good job, has been preapproved, is working with a lender skillful in navigating the financial market, has some money saved for a down payment, and, of course, has a "good agent," they said. Sellers should price their home competitively and stage it to reach its best potential.
Foster said the sellers in the best position are those who have owned their home for at least five years, so that they have built up equity and will not be as affected by recent market adjustments. "The best price range to be selling a home, especially in Newberg right now, is $300,000 to 400,000," he added.
The local real estate outlook
As far as the market goes, things may be looking up.
"I absolutely think (the market) is going to improve," Horn said. "I don't tend to be optimistic - I'm pretty much a realist - but I do believe it's going to improve."
Hester said that based on the number of inquiries filtering through his company's Web site, he expects the market to "start improving early next year." However, he added, there are "many factors involved and anything could change that scenario."
Foster offered an analysis of market changes in the near future: "We're going to see some more price reductions, we're going to have a lot of houses go off the market over the holidays," he said. "I see the market maintaining for awhile, (but) hopefully, I think the market will improve a little bit by the summer."
"(But) it's not going to be like it was two or three years ago," he clarified. "That's a market that only comes around once or twice in a person's lifetime."
According to Hagglund, we may have to wait a little longer for the market to improve. "As soon as the affordability issue is resolved and/or corrected, we should be doing fine," she said. "(But) this could take three to 10 years."
In the mean time, she said, "it is still a good time to buy and sell real estate."
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